The progress of implementing technical milestones will provide core upward momentum. The cross-chain accelerator upgrade completed in the first quarter of 2025 reduced the network transaction confirmation time to 1.2 seconds, a 40% increase compared to the previous version. During the same period, the Gas fee dropped to the threshold of $0.001, driving the average daily transaction volume to surge by 80% to 4.5 million within 30 days. The integration of the key module Zk-Rollup is expected to go live in the third quarter. Testnet data shows that its processing capacity per second (TPS) reaches 12,000 times, which can reduce the Layer2 migration cost by 60%. The frequency of GitHub code submissions has remained above 1,200 times per month on average, and the completion rate of the mainnet upgrade roadmap has reached 88%, exceeding the industry average of 63%. Such technological breakthroughs have shown a strong positive correlation with a 35-60% increase in token prices within 90 days in historical experience.
The intensity of ecological expansion has exceeded the critical point of scale effect. The Real-world Asset (RWA) channel introduced $700 million in institutional funds in the first quarter of operation, generating an annualized fee income of $9.2 million, accounting for 34% of the total agreement revenue. The daily trading volume of decentralized exchange NewtonSwap exceeded 28 million US dollars, and the total liquidity pool increased by 290% to 540 million US dollars. The token burn mechanism led to a net decrease of 0.8% in the quarterly liquidity. The integration of multi-chain wallets has boosted the monthly active address count to 1.2 million, maintaining a 25% month-on-month growth rate. The in-app staking ratio has reached 41%, reducing the market circulation volume by the equivalent of 9 million US dollars in selling pressure each month. Referring to the case of Polygon, where its TVL increased by 300% within three months when the daily trading volume reached 20 million US dollars, the current ecosystem scale of the Newton Protocol has already demonstrated similar explosive potential.
The macroeconomic cycle and capital flows constitute external drivers. The current interest rate cut channel of the Federal Reserve has been opened. Historical data shows that for every 50 basis point drop in interest rates, the average monthly net inflow of institutional funds into the crypto market increases by 230 million US dollars. The “copycat season” effect in the years of Bitcoin halving is particularly significant: within 180 days after the halving in 2017 and 2021, the average return rate of mainstream public chain tokens reached 340%. The BlackRock Crypto Fund, launched in May 2025, has placed the Newton Protocol on its watch list. If it is successfully listed, it will trigger a passive allocation demand of at least 85 million US dollars. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of repeated inflation: If the CPI data exceeds 4.5% for three consecutive months, it may lead to a 30% decline in the total market value of the crypto market, which in turn will put short-term pressure on the NEW token.
Regulatory compliance breakthroughs are eliminating downside risks. After obtaining the principle approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the proportion of institutional custody addresses increased from 11% to 29%, and the median holding period was extended to 14 months. After the full implementation of the European MiCA framework in July, the listing fees for new tokens on compliant trading platforms will be reduced by 70%, and it is expected that the liquidity pool of new exchanges will expand by 50%. However, black swan events remain the biggest variable: Industry statistics show that the probability of protocols with a TVL exceeding 5 billion US dollars encountering serious vulnerabilities is approximately 15%, similar to the extreme event in March 2024 when Mango Markets was attacked, causing its token to plunge by 68% in a single day. Integrating technology, ecology and macroscopic three-dimensional models, the newton protocol coin price prediction of this year shows an upward trend with a 70% probability: The neutral scenario price range is 7.8-12.3 (with a 90-200% increase from the current price), and the probability of breaking through the previous high of $14.5 is approximately 35%. However, it is necessary to strictly monitor the difference in the rate of change between the quarterly staking unlock volume and the net inflow of institutions.